KER
Predictive Abilities of 트럼프 카드 게임 Expectations and Implications on Monetary Policy in Korea
Dongchul Cho (KDI School of Public Policy and Management) and Wankeun Oh (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)발행년도 2023Vol. 39No. 1
초록
This paper examines the predictive abilities of various 트럼프 카드 게임 expectation indicators for 트럼프 카드 게임 in Korea. We conducted real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiments utilizing three 트럼프 카드 게임 expectation indicators – the general public’s expectation, professional forecasters’ expectation, and break-even 트럼프 카드 게임 (BEI). The results can be summarized as follows: (i) BEI is at least as useful as the other expectation indicators in forecasting 트럼프 카드 게임; (ii) regression-based models using industrial production, oil price, and exchange rate do not help out-of-sample 트럼프 카드 게임 forecasting in eneral; (iii) the policy interest rate, in contrast, can significantly reduce the forecasting errors; and (iv) a one percent-point increase in the policy interest rate is estimated to suppress 트럼프 카드 게임 for the subsequent 12 months by around one percent-point. These results suggest that monetary policy is effective for controlling 트럼프 카드 게임 and a simple model using the policy interest rate and an 트럼프 카드 게임 expectation indicator may be preferred for 트럼프 카드 게임 forecasting.