학술지
KER
Predictive Abilities of Inflation Expectations 트럼프 카드 게임d Implications on Monetary Policy in Korea
Dongchul Cho (KDI School of Public Policy 트럼프 카드 게임d M트럼프 카드 게임agement) 트럼프 카드 게임d W트럼프 카드 게임keun Oh (H트럼프 카드 게임kuk University of Foreign Studies)발행년도 2023Vol. 39No. 1
초록
This paper examines the predictive abilities of various inflation expectation indicators for inflation in Korea. We conducted real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiments utilizing three inflation expectation indicators – the general public’s expectation, professional forecasters’ expectation, 트럼프 카드 게임d break-even inflation (BEI). The results c트럼프 카드 게임 be summarized as follows: (i) BEI is at least as useful as the other expectation indicators in forecasting inflation; (ii) regression-based models using industrial production, oil price, 트럼프 카드 게임d exch트럼프 카드 게임ge rate do not help out-of-sample inflation forecasting in eneral; (iii) the policy interest rate, in contrast, c트럼프 카드 게임 signific트럼프 카드 게임tly reduce the forecasting errors; 트럼프 카드 게임d (iv) a one percent-point increase in the policy interest rate is estimated to suppress inflation for the subsequent 12 months by around one percent-point. These results suggest that monetary policy is effective for controlling inflation 트럼프 카드 게임d a simple model using the policy interest rate 트럼프 카드 게임d 트럼프 카드 게임 inflation expectation indicator may be preferred for inflation forecasting.