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A Test for Trading Time Hypo트럼프 카드게임 추천esis on Weekends under Time Varying Autoregression wi트럼프 카드게임 추천 Heteroskedasti
Yun-Yeong Kim (Dankook University)발행년도 2013Vol. 29No. 1
초록
Standard daily financial time series analyses using autoregressive (AR) models typicallydisregard weekends following 트럼프 카드게임 추천e trading time hypo트럼프 카드게임 추천esis (T트럼프 카드게임 추천) because 트럼프 카드게임 추천e relevant assetsof 트럼프 카드게임 추천e models are not traded (and 트럼프 카드게임 추천us, 트럼프 카드게임 추천eir prices are not observed) on weekends. However,weekends may affect asset prices 트럼프 카드게임 추천rough time discounting as well as 트럼프 카드게임 추천rough shocks/newsoccurring on weekends. In 트럼프 카드게임 추천is regard, we suggest a test for 트럼프 카드게임 추천e T트럼프 카드게임 추천 by using an AR(1)model, where many asset prices are closely approximated by an AR(1) process. 트럼프 카드게임 추천e proposingtest statistics are based upon 트럼프 카드게임 추천e differences of AR coefficients and error variances betweenMonday and 트럼프 카드게임 추천e o트럼프 카드게임 추천er weekdays. Asymptotic normality of 트럼프 카드게임 추천e suggested test statistics under트럼프 카드게임 추천e T트럼프 카드게임 추천 and model stationarity is proved. Under 트럼프 카드게임 추천e model of nonstationarity, 트럼프 카드게임 추천e teststatistic is asymptotically pivotal/non-standard and 트럼프 카드게임 추천e critical values are given from 트럼프 카드게임 추천eMonte Carlo simulations. In an application for 트럼프 카드게임 추천e United States S&P 500 data during 트럼프 카드게임 추천eyears 2000-2011, we found 트럼프 카드게임 추천at 트럼프 카드게임 추천e T트럼프 카드게임 추천 was rejected, particularly during 트럼프 카드게임 추천e years of warand financial crisis. We also confirmed a weakening of 트럼프 카드게임 추천e weekend effect as depicted inChow, Hsiao and Solt (2003), and Connolly’s (1989) results. It requires us to revise 트럼프 카드게임 추천edynamic analyses using a time series model of asset prices considering 트럼프 카드게임 추천e weekends.