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O  +&$*(R Expectations Channel of Monetary Policy**  ) Long rates are prices that matter Overnight rate are important only as a way to influence expectations Expectations theory of the yield curve holds Long rates determined by the expectations of future short rates Communication shapes expectationsT"F-b" F - b   +)Alan Blinder (1998)     [C]entral banks generally control only the overnight interest rate, an interest rate that is relevant to virtually no economically interesting transactions. Monetary policy has important macroeconomic effects only to the extent that it moves financial market prices that really matter - like long-term interest rates, stock market values and exchange rates. jj  h ~_ Background   Monetary policy works through financial markets Seen through lens of IS curve Central bank controls directly only overnight rate But can influence long rates through expectations of future path for short rates Affects consumption, investment...*NN    `Tinbergen-style Separation   _Price/output stabilisation Monetary policy Financial stability Prudential/supervisory policiesT      &    F aTinbergen-style Separation   fPrice/output stabilisation Monetary policy Price/output stabilisation Prudential/supervisory policiesX   $^  @       ! bUnwinding Financial Excess   Output costs of financial crises Fiscal costs of financial sector restructuring Asymmetry of mechanisms  on the way up  on the way down *j"j "   dTwo Recent Papers   Ioannidou, Ongena and Peydro (2009)  Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment paper presented at NBER Summer Institute in a dollarized system (Bolivia) that banks take more credit risk and reduce the loan spreads when rates are low Jimenez, Ongena, Peydr and Saurina (2008) find that lower short-term rates prior to loan origination imply loans with higher hazard rate, whereas higher rates during the life of the loan increase hazard rate Working paper, Bank of Spain and ECB r%#"""r""%""         k        e Main Findings   Decrease in Fed Funds rate Increases hazard rate of default for new loans Decreases hazard rate of default for existing loans Increases in lending to lower-rated borrowers at lower spreadsc* %  $% $   $ $  fMain Findings (continued)   iEffect most pronounced for banks with Lower capital More liquid assets Lower funds from foreign lenders <'B' B  i  ,*P Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy))  ( Term coined by Borio and Zhou (2008) Supply of credit Financial market conditions Works through intermediary balance sheets  Liquidity Kashyap and Stein (1990), Borio and Lowe (2002), Adrian and Shin (2008)& %gJ%  $` """""  -+ Possible Clue   Decrease in Fed Funds rate Increases hazard rate of default for new loans Decreases hazard rate of default for existing loansJdA  $% $  ., Possible Clue   Decrease in Fed Funds rate Increases hazard rate of default for new loans Decreases hazard rate of default for existing loans [increases market value of assets]pA$ $%$$"$$  /- Possible Clue   Decrease in Fed Funds rate Increases hazard rate of default for new loans [greater balance sheet capacity, take on marginal loans] Decreases hazard rate of default for existing loans [increases market value of assets]ZZA$ $8$$&$$#$  0.c"Duration of Assets and Liabilities##"( # Stylized Financial System   Stylized Financial System    Credit Demand    Demand for credit Investment by households (esp. housing) and non-financial corporates Durable goods consumption (consumer loans) Demand for financing by central and local governments. Demand for credit depends on Interest rates and spreads Household and Firm Net worth Fiscal policydZZZFZ"""F" ! Yield Curve (Credit Demand)    Credit Supply   7Delegation to financial intermediaries Credit supply determined by forces shaping financial intermediary balance sheets. Monetary policy works through intermediation Profitability of intermediation through yield curve Lender of last resort operations determine the availability of funding for intermediaries..ZZ   8  Haircut Curve (Credit Supply)"(     HOvernight repos, Financial CP and M2 (weekly, July 6 1994 as base date)II" I 2Repos and Financial CP as Fraction of M2 (weekly)33"$ 3 &Biggest Damage is Done in Contractions''"$&  *But Seeds of Crises Are Sown in Expansions++" *       T5  }^"Changing Nature of Monetary Policy##"( # Monetary policy works by manipulating asset prices Repercussions for wider financial system Is the  IS view of monetary policy sufficient? 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