ࡱ> :<9[ RbjbjB*ΐΐu OOOOOccc8,cCCC7999999X!#9OCC9OOhNjOO77Ÿ޲2cR#d0,$NR$$O C0s"CCC99CCC$CCCCCCCCC : East Asian Economies: Some Lessons Learnt and Challenges Ahead Toshihisa Toyoda Hiroshima Shudo University (Emeritus, Kobe University) East Asian Economies (EAE) comprise, most commonly, of ASEAN plus 3 (China, Japan and Korea; CJK). Before the Asian currency crisis of 1997/98, APEC was an important open regional forum in the Asia-Pacific Rim, which contributed to promote free trade and FDI , among other missions, in the region. Trade integration has been progressed through the vertical trade structure with cross-border production network, on one hand, and through trade arrangements of regional and bilateral FTA/EPA, on the other. The share of intraregional trade of ASEAN plus 3 is almost 60% and is still increasing. Although APECs basic principles still prevail, it could not effectively respond to the crisis and lost its presence after 1998. From the currency crisis, East Asian countries recognized the necessities of global frameworks that reduce capital flow volatility and enhance borrower countrys capacity and institution to mitigate undesirable impacts of financial globalization. After the crisis, monetary/fiscal cooperation became to be an urgent and common interest among them. ASEAN took the leading role to form the close relation of ASEAN plus 3. Chiang Mai Initiative (2000) is an important step to form a firm financial integration through a financial architecture, which is a short-term liquidity support mechanism through bilateral swap arrangement. Another important challenge for financial integration in the region is Asian bond market development, which would serve to channel great stock of savings to growth/development within the region. Recently, building East Asian Community (EAC) has become a hot issue in the region. However, it is only a dream at present and will take another 30 years or longer to attain it, I think. The possible ultimate form of EAC will be a community with a single market and a single currency. A single market can be attained through, first, completing FTA between all member countries in EAE. A next necessary step may be forming a custom union in the region. The present biggest problem exists in 3 (CJK), which have not attained mutual FTA yet. Creating a single currency is more difficult task. An Asian single money can be established when all mutual exchange rates of member countries are completely fixed. In reality, US dollars and euro are dominating currencies in trade transactions, while very few Asian currencies are used even in EAE. It will take long years for Chinese yuan, in particular, to be accepted as an internationally exchangeable currency. Also, as I found in a recent research*, LDC countries would be negatively affected mostly through deterioration in trade account by hastily introducing Asian common money or unit. CJK will have the key to establish EAC. The three countries occupy about 17 per cent of both world GDP and trade. If they cooperate more, step by step, towards an integrated economic, political and socio-cultural community, it would be possible but take many years. In the history of some 1,500 or longer years, various institutions, culture, religion and so on transmitted from China to Korea and Japan. Probably reflecting this history, we can observe a common aspect of peoples respectfulness to education and work, which must constitute a background factor of endogenous development /growth in CJK. Mutual acceptability and popularity of socio-cultural aspects have been promptly spread among people, particularly among the youth, in CJK. Approaching to EAC without political harmonization among member countries would be a difficult but challenging issue. Confronting the global financial crisis and also Great Sichuan Earthquake in 2008, the top leaders of CJK quickly met in Fukuoka to confirm further cooperation among 3. This is the first Summit 3 independently organized from other international gatherings. Fukuoka agreements (2008) include, among others, enhancement of further sectoral cooperation for mitigating risks in natural disasters in addition to external financial positions. I myself consider this meeting is a very important step towards EAC; mutual understanding and working together on sectoral issues like financial crises, natural disasters, environment, human resource development, etc., not only in CJK but also for ASEAN would be an important but necessary step towards EAC despite the existence of heterogeneous political systems. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *Toyoda, T. and K. 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